700 industry experts surveyed by ComicBook.com crown Avengers: Doomsday as 2026's box-office winner — but the Polymarket prediction-market odds tell the opposite story: Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 70% likelihood, Doomsday at just 12%. The split says everything about Marvel Studios' fragile current standing.
The dueling predictions are striking. ComicBook.com surveyed 700 industry experts: 174 of them — a substantial plurality — picked Avengers: Doomsday as 2026's highest-grossing film. The industry's reasoning is conventional: Marvel Studios' tentpole Avengers films have all crossed $1.4 billion globally, Robert Downey Jr.'s return as Doctor Doom should fire the fan base, and December's family-movie demand is reliable. Internal Disney projections reportedly place the floor between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion, with an optimistic ceiling at $2 billion+.
The prediction-market data tells a starkly different story. Polymarket — the cryptocurrency-based prediction market where users bet real money on outcomes — puts Spider-Man: Brand New Day at approximately 70% likelihood of being 2026's top-grossing film. Avengers: Doomsday sits at just 12%. The market is voting against the industry consensus by a ratio of nearly 6:1.
What explains the gap? Three factors compound.
1. Marvel Studios' commercial pattern has cracked. The post-Endgame era saw The Marvels (2023) bomb commercially ($206M global on a $274M budget), Quantumania (2023) stall at $476M, and Captain America: Brave New World (2025) open below expectations. Thunderbolts* performed solidly but didn't reset the trajectory. The market is pricing in genuine doubt that the Avengers brand can re-trigger Endgame-era demand.
2. Spider-Man's audience consistency is unmatched. Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) grossed $1.92 billion globally — the highest of any post-pandemic film — and the recent Brand New Day trailer drop hit 718.6 million views in 24 hours, breaking every theatrical-trailer record on the books. The market is treating Spider-Man as the lower-risk, higher-floor option.
3. Doomsday's reception risk is asymmetric. If Doomsday receives "Endgame-tier" reviews, it could clear $2 billion. If reviews are mixed (which has been the recent post-Saga MCU pattern), the floor could drop substantially below the $1.2 billion baseline. The market is hedging against the downside while industry experts focus on the upside.
The four-trailer marketing strategy Marvel deployed — character-focused teasers releasing on December 23 (Captain America), December 30 (Thor), January 6 (X-Men), and January 13 (Wakanda/Fantastic Four/Namor) — is the most aggressive Avengers campaign since Endgame. Whether it converts to opening-weekend turnout matters enormously for the broader Phase 6 architecture. Avengers: Secret Wars (2027) is being budgeted off Doomsday's commercial result.
For broader Phase 6 context, see our MCU Phase 6 Roadmap, MCU release order, and our coverage of all Doomsday's X-Men reveal and Brand New Day's record trailer launch. The 2026 box-office calendar will be decided by which prediction wins out.