700 industry experts crown Avengers: Doomsday as 2026's box-office winner — but Polymarket odds tell the opposite story: Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 70%, Doomsday at just 12%.
The dueling predictions are striking. ComicBook.com surveyed 700 industry experts: 174 of them — a substantial plurality — picked Avengers: Doomsday as 2026's highest-grossing film. Internal Disney projections reportedly place the floor between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion, with an optimistic ceiling at $2 billion+.
The prediction-market data tells a starkly different story. Polymarket — the prediction market where users bet real money on outcomes — puts Spider-Man: Brand New Day at approximately 70% likelihood of being 2026's top-grossing film. Doomsday sits at just 12%. The market is voting against industry consensus by nearly 6:1.
Three factors compound the gap. First, Marvel's commercial pattern has cracked post-Endgame — The Marvels bombed ($206M global), Quantumania stalled at $476M. Second, Spider-Man's consistency is unmatched — No Way Home grossed $1.92B, and the Brand New Day trailer hit 718.6M views in 24 hours. Third, Doomsday's reception risk is asymmetric: a strong reception could clear $2B, but mixed reviews could push it under $1.2B.
Marvel's four-trailer marketing strategy (character-focused teasers releasing late December through January 13) is the most aggressive Avengers campaign since Endgame. Avengers: Secret Wars (2027) is being budgeted off Doomsday's commercial result. For broader Phase 6 context, see our MCU Phase 6 Roadmap.